Who Wins the World Cup? Students Create a Model to Predict Exactly That
Before the first match kicks off, a group of students has already run thousands of simulations to predict who will lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy.
The has published its , featuring game-by-game forecasts, heat maps and predictions for each group and for each nation.
President Evan Pegorsch ’27, a sport analytics and economics major in the and data analyst for the Orange’s men’s soccer team, and Noah Bair ’28, a sport analytics major, discuss their predictive model, who they think will win it all and the U.S. team’s chances of advancing out of their group and into the knockout stage.
What makes the model stand out?
Noah Bair: We wanted to study those contributing factors to team success at the World Cup—roster quality, previous World Cup experience, how teams have historically performed and whether a team has a veteran or a first-time coach—to think about our predictive model as sports fans rather than analysts. What important characteristics are missing, and how can we add to the research?
Evan Pegorsch: We’re providing the data to back up why we think a team is going to win or lose. We don’t just rely on FIFA rankings. We also factor in how many players each team has on the Ballon d’Or rankings [a list of the top 30 players in the world], how each team performs playing in different temperatures, how long the coach has been with the team and other key indicators. If you just went off the FIFA world rankings, our model overperformed that baseline by 15%.
Who are the favorites to win the World Cup?
Pegorsch: The consensus favorite is Spain, but my number one is France. Their attack is overpowering, they have enough depth in other key areas, and the defense is looking good. Then it’s Spain. Then you must include Messi and Argentina, which has great team chemistry and a willingness to fight for each other. Then I’d go with England and Portugal, which has a talented midfield and a defense that’s on the rise.
Bair: France is my number one, based on what they’ve done historically—they won it all in 2018 and were runners-up in 2022. That historical dominance along with the quality of players is going to take them very far. Then it’s Argentina. Anytime Lionel Messi is on the field you have a chance to win. Then I like Portugal. The quality in their midfield is second to none. England having a new manager is going to help, and this is an invigorated team with a lot of young talent that can bring home the trophy. I’m also high on the Netherlands. They have a deep team and one of the best benches in the World Cup.
What will be the impact of an expanded field and multiple co-host nations?
Bair: For the first time, we have three co-host nations in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, and 48 participating teams, the largest field in World Cup history. This will create an unexpected challenge. Unlike during their domestic season when matches are centralized and you might be traveling 30-40 miles for matches, these teams will be traveling across countries and for far greater distances than they’re used to, which could definitely impact the matches.
Pegorsch: Travel fatigue is going to be a big factor in this tournament. Teams will have to adapt to added travel and shorter rest times between matches. And adding more teams decreases the likelihood of every single country winning it all in our model. The top teams have a smaller chance of winning it all than they have in the past, because there’s more potential for upsets and more variance.
How far does the model think the U.S. will advance?
Pegorsch: Our model gives them a 4% chance to win it all. Being on home soil helps. I worry about the goalkeeper, which is a huge area of weakness. When you get later into the World Cup rounds, the chances of dealing with either a penalty kick or penalty kick shootout increase, and I don’t trust our goalkeeping there. But there’s a lot of excitement around the U.S. and it’s realistic for them to reach the quarterfinals.
Bair: As tournament hosts, they’ve been given a favorable draw and don’t have a great contender in their group. The U.S. is the favorite to win Group D [88.7% to advance] and make the knockout stage. The talent is there to make it to the quarterfinals, and the U.S. will get a boost playing in front of the home crowd. But realistically, I think the team will lose in the round of 16.
What’s a dark horse country with the talent to make a deep run?
Bair: Ecuador is an up-and-coming team with some quality players who have been on the rise since 2022. Because Ecuador doesn’t have that historic success on the national stage, the data will likely say they’re not going to go very far, but Ecuador has one of the best defenses in the world, and at the World Cup, defense can carry a team.
Pegorsch: The model is high on Norway. They have one of the best players in the world in Erling Haaland, and while Norway is 29th or 30th in the FIFA rankings [at the time the data was collected], we have them with the 11th best odds to win because they have strong attacking options.
